Modelling extreme yields in the Wet Tropics to improve nitrogen use efficiency : Final report 2014/024

Abstract

The Wet Tropics experiences one of the highest levels of climate variability in the world. These enormous swings in inter-annual climate patterns cause large fluctuations in crop size, and hence, how much nitrogen should be applied to the crop. Consequently, it is good to know the size of the crop before farmers apply fertiliser. Foreknowledge of the size of the crop can also help marketers and millers. Marketers armed with early and reliable information about crop size can better plan the sale and storage of the crop and millers can better plan mill labour requirements and mill maintenance scheduling activities. Given the close proximity of the Great Barrier Reef to sugarcane growing regions in the Wet Tropics, estimating yield potential accurately promises significant environmental benefits achieved by improved nitrogen management.

In pursuit of simultaneously increasing industry competitiveness and improving environmental outcomes, the objectives of this research were to determine how early and how accurate yields can be forecasted and if it is plausible to forecast extreme yields.